Washington’s Cap-and-Invest (CaI) market, launched in 2023 under the Climate Commitment Act (CCA) of 2021, has faced significant challenges in its first 18 months. While the potential linkage with California and Quebec’s carbon markets could improve market liquidity and stability, the potential repeal of the CCA by Ballot Initiative 2117 has led to cautious market sentiment, reflected in reduced trading volumes and lower allowance prices. Meanwhile, ongoing revisions to offset protocols aim to ensure program integrity and broaden the availability of offsets.

Given the early stage of Washington’s offset market, projections are challenging. Our analysis draws parallels from trends in the WCI cap-and-trade market to inform supply, demand, and price projections through 2030. This approach considers offset availability, regulatory changes, and evolving political dynamics, making it more of a forward-looking calculation based on assumptions rather than a comprehensive forecast.